The world's most vital oil chokepoint has been reduced to a shooting gallery, and the ceasefire that was supposed to fix it is already dead.

"A return to full-scale hostilities would have catastrophic consequences for the peoples of the region, for international peace and security, and for the global economy as a whole."

: UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric, relaying Secretary-General António Guterres's assessment

The document signed on June 17 by Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was supposed to end a war that began when the United States and Israel assassinated Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28. The memorandum of understanding promised an end to hostilities in Lebanon, the lifting of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, reductions in US military assets, sanctions relief, and a 60-day timeline for resolving Iran's nuclear program. It was signed by the world's two most powerful leaders, brokered by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, and heralded as a turning point.

Six weeks later, none of it matters.

The breakdown began on July 6, when the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck three commercial vessels, including a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, off the coast of Oman. Iran accused the ships of transiting the Strait without permission. Tehran's reading of the MoU gave the IRGC authority to manage and approve all traffic through the waterway. Washington's reading said the Strait was open to all vessels and that the MoU ended Iran's right to restrict passage.

Neither side was willing to concede. On July 7, the US military struck Iranian targets in response. On the same day, Trump declared the MoU over. By Saturday, the US said it had hit more than 140 targets across Iran, including missile and drone sites, communication networks, and coastal surveillance installations. The Pentagon introduced new weapons systems for the first time in this conflict: one-way attack sea drones deployed alongside fighter aircraft, naval vessels, and aerial drones. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth summed up the administration's posture in six words: "Iran made a poor choice. Now they pay."

Translation: the ceasefire was never a commitment to peace. It was a pause long enough for both sides to reload.

Iran's retaliation was not limited to US targets inside Iran. For the first time since the April ceasefire, the IRGC launched wide-ranging attacks across the Gulf, striking American military installations in countries that had been spared for weeks or months. The scope was deliberately expansive.

In Jordan, the IRGC targeted the Prince Hassan Air Base with missiles and drones, claiming to have destroyed the base's command and control center and MQ-9 drone hangars. Jordan's military said it intercepted four incoming missiles from Iranian territory.

In Bahrain, missiles and drones struck the Sheikh Isa Air Base and other US facilities in Juffair. Bahrain's Ministry of Interior sounded sirens across the country and ordered residents to shelter.

In Kuwait, the IRGC said it targeted a US surface-to-surface missile base, claiming to have destroyed two HIMARS launchers and missile-packed warehouses. Kuwaiti air defense systems were activated and engaged "hostile aerial targets."

In Oman, the IRGC targeted and claimed to have destroyed long-range aerial radar and vessel detection systems. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar, which had not been attacked since April and May respectively, also reported incoming missiles and drones.

Qatar's involvement is particularly significant. The country has served as a mediator in ceasefire talks throughout the conflict. Iran attacking its territory sends a message that no one is off limits, regardless of diplomatic role.

The human toll extends far beyond military personnel. Approximately 6,000 seafarers remain stranded aboard hundreds of vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Persian Gulf. Commercial traffic through the strait has fallen to its lowest level in five weeks. According to data from the trade intelligence firm Kpler, only six ships sailed through the strait on Sunday, down from the normal rate of roughly 130 per day.

The UN International Maritime Organization's Secretary-General, Arsenio Dominguez, condemned "reckless attacks" against merchant vessels and warned flag states and shipowners not to expose seafarers to "unnecessary danger." The UN called on all parties to avoid transit through the strait until safety conditions can be restored.

On the Iranian side, at least eight locations across the Khuzestan province were struck by US forces. A projectile hit an agricultural water-pumping station in Mahshahr, killing one person and injuring four. US Central Command also struck targets on Qeshm Island, a strategic Iranian island in the Gulf that hosts an important IRGC base.

The UN Economic Commission for Europe warned that energy prices and supply disruptions are set to continue for months, even if the situation stabilizes quickly. Strategic oil reserves are at their lowest levels in decades. The commission's energy director, Dario Liguti, said, "If the instability does not continue, we should get ready for another rise in prices and a larger-scale raw material shortage." The phrasing was likely a diplomatic error, because the instability is continuing.

Trump framed the collapse as Iran's fault. On NBC's Meet the Press, he said, "They're very, very evil and sick people. We had meetings with them. They agreed to a deal yesterday, a perfect deal for us. No nuclear, no this, no that, no nothing. They gave up everything. And then after that, they left the room. And then within an hour, they launched a drone at a ship."

Iran's position was the opposite. Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who serves as the country's chief negotiator with the US, wrote on X: "The era of one-sided deals is OVER. We told you: keep your word or pay the price. Reality is knocking."

Both narratives omit what actually happened in the weeks between June 17 and July 6. The MoU was a framework, not a treaty. It relied on both sides interpreting vague language in their favor and trusting the other to act in good faith. There was no enforcement mechanism, no international guarantor, and no clear protocol for what constitutes a violation. The document assumed a level of institutional stability in post-Khamenei Iran that simply does not exist.

Inside Iran, power rests with Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, who replaced Ali Larijani after Larijani was killed on March 17. Above him sits Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the assassinated supreme leader, appointed in early March to a role his father once held. Trump himself called Mojtaba's appointment "unacceptable." The hierarchy is fractured, contested, and deeply militarized. Anyone who signs a peace deal in Tehran can be undermined by someone inside the IRGC who never agreed to it.

This is not a problem that can be solved by one more MoU.

The global economic consequences are accelerating. Oil prices surged from roughly $70 per barrel before the February strikes to an average of $103 per barrel in March. China has blocked exports of helium, a critical material for semiconductor manufacturing, as the war squeezes supply chains. Fuel shortages and rationing returned to parts of Asia. The El Niño-driven heatwaves forecast to strengthen over the coming months will compound the energy crisis, increasing cooling demand while straining power infrastructure and reducing water availability for power plant cooling.

In the broader picture, this conflict has already upended the Middle East. Lebanon is at war again, with more than 1.1 million people displaced and Israeli forces operating north of the Litani River for the first time since 2006. The Houthis in Yemen reopened a front against Israel on March 28. Thousands died in Iran, Lebanon, and Israel. The Iranian Ministry of Health reported that at least 30,000 people were killed in the January 2026 crackdown on domestic protests, which preceded the US military buildup.

The Strait of Hormuz is supposed to be a channel for free trade. What it has become is a proxy for every unresolved question about what the US and Iran actually want from each other. Washington wants a demilitarized, non-nuclear Iran that does not project power across the region. Tehran wants regime survival, regional influence, and guarantees that the US will not invade. Neither side's demands are compatible with the other's bottom line.

The ceasefire was not broken because someone acted in bad faith. It was broken because the underlying conflict was never resolved. The document on the table only managed the symptoms.

The question is not whether the Strait of Hormuz will reopen. The question is how much more of the Middle East has to burn before anyone in Washington admits that peace requires more than a piece of paper signed by two adversaries who do not trust each other.

iran, united states, strait of hormuz, ceasefire