trump, midterms, republicans, gop

Senate Republicans are receiving the same polling data as every other campaign in America, and it is making them panic.

"The poll numbers that I am seeing are not very encouraging. And I do not see things changing a lot between now and November."

— Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, after being primary-challenged by a Trump-endorsed opponent

Three weeks after losing his Senate primary to Ken Paxton, the four-term Texas Republican called it his "liberation day." He could stop fundraising, stop running, stop pretending the party he spent his career building still resembled something with guardrails. What he could not stop was telling anyone who would listen that the midterms were going to be catastrophic for Republicans.

Cornyn is not alone. In a closed-door Senate GOP meeting earlier this month, Republican leaders delivered grim warnings to their colleagues: the anti-incumbent wave shaping up for November is worse than previously predicted. According to Raw Story, senators left the room visibly shaken. The language being used internally is "bloodbath."

Translation: the people who have the power to govern know they are probably not going to have it in January.

The numbers are not abstract. A June NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found Trump's overall job approval at 36 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. The gap is the widest of his two terms combined. His economic approval sits at 33 percent, three points worse than the lowest mark given to Joe Biden. Inflation topped 4 percent for the first time in three years. Gas prices remain a strain on more than three-quarters of American households.

Only a third of white Americans without a college degree approve of Trump's handling of the economy, down from nearly half in April 2025. Trump went from having a 22-point net positive among rural voters to 10 points underwater. Twenty-two percent of Republicans disapprove of his economic performance, and the share who strongly approve of his job performance dropped from 61 percent to 53 percent in just two months.

The Iran war, tariffs, and persistent inflation have converged into something that no amount of rally rhetoric can paper over. Forty-five percent of Americans said they would not take a summer vacation this year, with cost being the primary reason.

Translation: this is what a midterm referendum looks like when the referendum is happening to you, not to somebody else.

The Senate GOP conference is fracturing along lines that did not exist twelve months ago. When Republicans narrowly passed their massive spending and tax package, criticism of Trump was almost nonexistent on Capitol Hill. The party presented a unified front.

That unity has evaporated. A trio of outgoing senators has become something political observers now call "YOLO Republicans." Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who announced he would not seek reelection after Trump threatened a primary challenge, has grown increasingly outspoken. He held up Trump's Federal Reserve nominee, Kevin Warsh, until the Justice Department dropped its probe of Jerome Powell. He is now publicly questioning Attorney General nominee Todd Blanche.

Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who lost his primary after voting to convict Trump following January 6th, called the Iran deal "the worst foreign policy blunder in decades." Senator John Cornyn, primary-defeated by Trump's pick Paxton, is openly warning his party about midterm losses.

Three senators who are leaving Washington are using their remaining months to pull leverage on nominations and policy. They know they have nothing to lose and everything to say.

The White House has responded by needling Congress rather than cooperating with it. Trump delayed the confirmation of Jay Clayton as national intelligence director hours before his hearing via an overnight social media post. He threatened to be "the last Republican president" if Senate Republicans do not pass his proof-of-citizenship voting bill, the SAVE America Act, despite Majority Leader John Thune telling him directly that the votes do not exist. He is demanding that members of Congress fund his White House ballroom project and accept an acting intelligence director nobody supports.

AP reporter Mary Clare Jalonick described the relationship between Trump and Senate Republicans as nearing a breaking point. At a private conference lunch, several Republican senators criticized Mike Lee of Utah for his online campaign to eliminate the filibuster and pass the voting bill, arguing he was stoking dissension during an election year. Cornyn fired back: "Prove us wrong."

The message from the outgoing senators is clear: if you want something done, you do it through the Senate. You do not do it by screaming on social media and hoping fear does the rest.

On the other side of the aisle, Democrats are showing more enthusiasm to vote and see a credible path to retaking both chambers. The left is gaining momentum in unexpected places. In Colorado, socialist Melat Kiros defeated 29-year incumbent Diana DeGette in the Democratic primary. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is personally endorsing progressive candidates in Tennessee. The Democratic Socialists of America saw victories in the New York primaries.

The expanding Democratic map is forcing Republicans to spend enormous sums to defend seats that were previously considered safe. The Texas Senate race between Paxton and Democratic challenger James Talarico is on track to be one of the most expensive Senate races in history. Cornyn's refusal to continue fundraising for the party is being felt.

Former Arizona Senator Jeff Flake, who faced his own primary challenges from Trump in 2017, said the midterm losses could force a reckoning. "Nothing focuses the mind like a big election loss," he said.

The irony of the current GOP dynamic is hard to miss. The senators most willing to publicly contradict Trump are the ones who are leaving. The senators who must survive November are the ones who cannot afford to break ranks, even as the numbers suggest breaking might be the only way to stay in office.

Trump has far fewer Senate allies than he did when they pushed through the tax and spending package a year ago. He eliminated them himself, endorsing primary challengers against Cassidy, Cornyn, and others who would not fall in line. Now those same senators are free to criticize without consequence, while the remaining loyalists watch their polling plummet.

The party that spent two years telling Americans it would deliver economic relief is staring at numbers that suggest voters are handing back the keys. Cornyn said he does not see things changing between now and November.

He is probably right about that. The question is whether the rest of the GOP Senate will listen before it is too late.